Almost a quarter of a century ago, on 18 March 2001, the Socialists conquered the prestigious Hotel de Ville – the Paris mayorship. For more than two decades, the Right and then the Macronists have unsuccessfully tried to take it back. The Right has been gaining strength in French society in recent years and the 2026 election seemed to be the perfect opportunity to capture this prestigious prize. However, it appears that the Paris mayorship will remain a mirage for the Right as history looks to repeat itself.
Candidates & Polls
As the 15 and 22 March 2026 election rounds approach, the Socialist candidate Emmanuel Grégoire (48) is in pole position. He is a deputy mayor and political heir of current mayor Anne Hidalgo, who decided to step down after 12 years.
The vote will be highly political and Paris leans politically to the Left. All candidates who pass the 10% threshold advance to a second and final round, in which the candidate who’s list receives the most votes wins the most delegates and, automatically, the Mayorship.
Currently, five candidates could make it to the second round. Polls indicate that Mr. Grégoire leads the group with 32%. He is followed by Mrs. Rachida Dati (Republicans - Right) – his major challenger - with 28.5%, Mrs. Sarah Knafo (Reconquest - far right) with 13.5%, Mr. Pierre-Yves Bournazel (Horizons - Center) with 12%, and Mrs. Sofia Chikirou (Unbowed France - far left) with 10.5%.
Almost all scenarios point to Mr. Grégoire as the future mayor of Paris. If all five candidates mentioned above advance to the second round, the distribution of the votes for the candidates who received less than 10% will not change the rankings. Considering this data, there are not many options for the French Right to prevent Mr. Grégoire’s victory.
The Right’s (Limited) Strategic Options
The first option is an alliance between Mr. Bournazel and Mrs. Dati for the second round. This alliance is possible but complex. Mr. Bournazel is backed by former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who broke with President Macron, while Mrs. Dati only recently stepped down as a minister in the current Macronist government. To make it happen it would need President Macron to request his former Prime Minister support for Mrs. Dati. This alliance would not automatically make Mrs. Dati the winner, but it would strongly increase her chances and dynamics, especially if Mrs. Chikirou makes it to the second round.
The second scenario would be an alliance between Mrs. Knafo and Mrs. Dati. Mrs. Knafo, a young and ambitious European MP, proposed to unite the two lists under her leadership. Such a proposal is not even considered by the Dati camp since Mrs. Knafo is well behind in the polls. However, his utopical common list was tested by the polls and, surprisingly, it appears that it would beat Mr. Grégoire in the second round (46% to 42%). Without a last-minute turnaround, Mrs. Dati and Mrs. Knafo will compete against each other on the second round of the election, on March 22.
Finally, the least likely scenario is an anti-Grégoire front for the second round, regrouping Mrs. Dati, Mrs. Knafo, and Mr. Bournazel.
Potential Regulatory Risks for Real Estate Investors and Developers
During the campaign, Mrs. Knafo argued that the city should stop authorizing new office buildings in order to prioritize housing. Some of the other candidates shared their views against Airbnb and other tourist rental platforms, with Mr. Grégoire and Mrs. Chikirou promising to fight against landlords and companies who propose "tens of thousands of illegal tourist rentals". While these actions respond to the capital’s housing shortage, they illustrate how urban planning could become a highly politicized issue in the coming years. It could also impact future openings of co-working areas in residential buildings.
For investors and real estate developers, these are clear signals that, regardless of the electoral outcome, the next municipal term could therefore see increased regulatory pressure on commercial real-estate and tourist rental projects in Paris.
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Once again, divisions within the French Right and between the Right and the Center appear to be paving the way for another Socialist victory. Unless forces on the Right manage to overcome their rivalries and build a credible electoral coalition, the Paris mayorship is likely to remain out of reach. The capital would thus continue to stand as the main stronghold of the French Left and could play an important role in shaping the political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential election.