Hours before François Bayrou’s government is expected to fall, France finds itself at peak political uncertainty. And uncertainty has a price: according to Economy Minister Éric Bompard, the downfall of the previous Barnier government cost France 0.3% of GDP, or more precisely around €6 billion. Today, with the National Rally (far right) demanding a new parliamentary snap election and The Rebellious France (far left) calling for Macron’s resignation - and thus a snap presidential election - pressure is mounting on the President to act swiftly.
The French press is floating four ministers as possible replacements for Prime Minister François Bayrou. Yet none appears capable of changing the political equation. Gérald Darmanin or Sébastien Lecornu might secure an abstention from the National Rally and get invested as Prime Minister, but such a government would remain hostage to its adversaries, as the previous ones. Moreover, Gérald Darmanin, with his own presidential ambitions for 2027, is unlikely to risk taking the role at Matignon Palace.
That leaves President Macron only one viable direction: the left. The current majority rests on 210 MPs against 353 MPs in opposition. If the 66 Socialist MPs were to rally behind the government, the balance would improve to 276 versus 297. Add potential support from the 23 deputies of the Liberty, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) group and, depending on budgetary commitments for the green transition, some of the 38 Ecologists, and Macron could build a buffer against the constant threats of the far right and far left to topple his governments.
However, such a shift would not mean a Socialist prime minister - Bruno Retailleau, the Interior Minister and leader of the Republicans (centre-right), has flatly rejected the idea. But it could take the form of a Macronist Prime Minister heading a cabinet with Socialist ministers, or even a left-leaning technocrat as Prime Minister. The new majority will be a puzzle issued from five, six or even seven different MP groups, going from centre-right to centre-left, but its goal is to pass a budget and support government until the next presidential election in May 2027.
In the end, there is little doubt: if Macron wants to avoid another snap parliamentary election, his only option is to open the government’s door to the Socialists.